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28 NATIONAL AVIATION GOALS-PROJECT HORIZON

There are four major markets for the industry - the U.S. Government, foreign governments, air carriers, and general aviation. The U.S. Government market is still the dominant factor is expected to expand modestly during the decade, with growth in missiles and space systems increasing at a faster rate than the decline in aircraft. The foreign demand likewise is expected to drift upward slightly during the decade. The air-carrier market is currently at a higher level than can be sustained during the next several years and will shrink before the next generations of aircraft (such as V/STOL and the supersonic transport) are ready for delivery. The general aviation market, while comparatively small in dollar volume, is expanding and will continue to do so. 
With the military market so significant in the overall total, the industry tends to focus its skills and resources on products for that market. Those civil aircraft and equipment which are essentially a direct fallout or byproduct of military systems should benefit as a result. But the increasing company resources required for military systems, coupled with the increasing complexity and cost of civil aeronautical systems, may well result in a decrease in the resources and attention devoted to exclusively civil aviation products. Certainly, the unhappy experience of the manufacturers in the subsonic jet program will affect their approach to any large future civil aircraft development program. 
The supersonic transport program is the prime case in point. First, the financial requirement is larger than for any previous civil transport development; second, the technical problems, including those involving environmental factors, are more difficult; third, the market is even more circumscribed. Government financial support is therefore clearly indicated. This is not true of the V/STOL programs, where the amount of money involved is comparatively small and where military decisions will, in large part, determine the direction, extent, and the time phasing of civil V/STOL development.