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NATIONAL AVIATION GOALS-PROJECT HORIZON

able - as discussed elsewhere. Although much of this equipment - insofar as capital outlays are concerned - will not be available until the early 1970's, the capital requirements at that time will be extensive. An industry beset with serious financial problems would probably not be able to exploit the full potential of such equipment. 
To develop a meaningful analysis of the abilities of the major airlines to meet their financial obligations in the period ahead to undertake more advanced equipment programs by the early 1970's, each of the trunkline carriers (plus Pan American and Panagra) was polled as to its projects for significant financial elements for the period 1960 through 1970. (No request was made of a forecast of earnings.) 
Since projections become more indefinite and subject to greater uncertainties and modifications as they extend beyond the immediate years ahead, it is more meaningful to equate cash requirements within shorter time periods. Accordingly, cash flows were separated as between 1961-65 and 1966-70.
On this basis, the forecast of the consolidated cash requirements for the 13 major airlines appears as follows:
 
1961-65 PERIOD 
[Amounts in millions]
For equipment acquisitions.........................$1,900
For debt retirement...................................643
Total cash requirements.............................2,543

To meet the above requirements, this group of airlines expects to generate cash from the following sources: 

From depreciation and amortization.................$1,800
From credits available................................467
From sale of surplus aircraft..........................65
Subtotal............................................2,332
Balance required......................................211

The total industry figures set forth above obscure some acute financial problems with respect to particular carriers and groups of carriers.
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