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."defender" "attacker"
       D   d     (1st strike)

[[4 row column]]
| [[squiggly line]] | ___  | [[squiggly line]] | ___ |
| S | L | s | l |

assume: xl fired in 1st strike
[could be x(l+s)] or [xl+ys]

① no defenses (D = d = 0 = fraction of attack destroys)

xl = defenders missiles destroyed
L-xl = remaining missiles
S + (L-xl) = retaliatory penetrating force = R

② defenses D & d
Dxl = attackers missiles destroyed
(1-D)xl = 1st strike missiles which penetrate
L-(1-D)xl = defenders remaining land force
S+L-(1-D)xl = defenders retaliatory force
(note that it is larger by (Dxl) then above)

d(S+L-(1-D)xl)=retaliatory force destroyed
(1-d)(S+L-xl+xlD)=retaliatory penetrating force
= (1-d)(R+xlD)
→ larger retaliatory force available
→ only a fraction of it survives