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Aerospace Safety Adviosory Panel

With limited resources,funding an extentsion of the Shuttle program will constrain available resources for the Constellation program, merely postponing or shifting the gap while exposing NASA to the increased risk of Shuttle flights and deferring the Constellation program. 

2. Accelaration of the Constellation Program. The ASAP is not convinced that the Ares I and Orian initial operationg capability (IOC) date can be improved appreciably by additional resources.

Nasa is developing a new system for the first time in years, so it needs sufficient time to identify and resolve problems and reiterate the process. 

The Constellation program requires management resourses and personnel (many now working on the shuttle program, others not yet hired and trained.)

The geographic dispersal of many involved organizations demands coordination and maturing of diverse programs (many with very long lead times) at the same time. 

Ares I and Orion designs are all still in development and cannot be anchored in verifiable data (e.g., on thrust oscillation, stack control in flight) and NASA tests the Ares I-x in summer 2009 

3.Private Sector. The ASAP concludes that the private sector cannot bridge the gap. 

There is no evidence that Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) vehicles will be completed in time to minimize the gap. 

COTS vehicles currently are not subject to the Human-Rating Requirements (HRR) standards and are not proven to be appropiate to transport NASA personnel. 

The capability of COTS vehicles to safely dock with the ISS still must be demonstrated. 

B. Safety and Reliabiliy of Soyuz 

Although the ASAP continues to be concerned about the safety of the Russian Soyuz vehicle, the panel is satisfied that NASA is aware of and addressing the potential limitations involved in relying on Soyuz during the gap between Shuttle retirement and Constellation IOC.

1. U.S./Russian Cooperation. The United States and Russia have jointly conducted human space flight operations since the 1970S Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, and the ASAP is impressed by several facts. 

The Soyuz has been, still is, and will remain the only ISS emergency crew return vehicle. 

During the grounding of the Shuttle fleet, Nasa essentiall conducted a successful test run of relying on the Soyuz to transport U.S. astronauts. 

Although the U.s./ Russian partnership can be politically challenging, the two nations depend on each other to continue ISS operations (currently the only significant Russian space mission) 

To avoid conflicts, NASA is carefully negotiating explicit contract terms with no loopholes.