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Date 7/17/09 AEROSPACE BRIEFINGS LAUNCH OPTIONS - JOHN SKRAFT BUCKETS: Crew →ISS Crew → LEO & BEYOND Cargo → ISS Cargo → LEO & BEYOND Created metrics: HIGH-LEVEL + LOWER LEVEL (DRIVING HIGHER LEVEL) ⇒ CREATED JUDGEMENT of CLAIM + UNCERTAINTY IN JUDGEMENT (USED SURROGATES for LOC) → DIDN'T WEIGHT TOP-LEVEL METRICS ORION IOC - 18-24 mo (or worse ⇒ bec. of when growth usually occurs + serial nature of tests) • sched back-end loaded • crit path goes thru System Qual • only 3 mo betA Sys Qual completion + 1st FLT • could get 18 mo delay to Orion 2 [due to test/sched) • CDR → launch ~7 mo short of hist. [sched grows most after [[?]] CDR - avg] • Eng tests have slipped a lot • Elements on crit path (STA; SYS QUAL) have slipped • Parallel paths → Expected design impact ~6 mo [[right margin]] --> impact during design[[/right margin]] TPS LAS: SRM dev att cntl motor design jettison SRM motor dev. [[left margin]] Mar 2015 [Early 2017]FY & redesign time (~1 yr) [[/left margin]] test & verify schedule (GTA, STA, prop tests, FTA tests) - loss of SM in GTA → Expected impact during tests ~12 mo. MOST SCHED GROWTH HIST OCCURS > CDR