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Date 7/17/09

AEROSPACE BRIEFINGS
LAUNCH OPTIONS - JOHN SKRAFT
BUCKETS: Crew →ISS   Crew → LEO & BEYOND
         Cargo → ISS  Cargo → LEO & BEYOND
Created metrics: HIGH-LEVEL 
               + LOWER LEVEL (DRIVING HIGHER LEVEL)
⇒ CREATED JUDGEMENT of CLAIM + UNCERTAINTY IN JUDGEMENT 
  (USED SURROGATES for LOC)
→ DIDN'T WEIGHT TOP-LEVEL METRICS

ORION IOC - 18-24 mo (or worse ⇒ bec. of when growth usually occurs + serial nature of tests) 
• sched back-end loaded
• crit path goes thru System Qual
• only 3 mo betA Sys Qual completion + 1st FLT
• could get 18 mo delay to Orion 2 [due to test/sched)
• CDR → launch ~7 mo short of hist. 
  [sched grows most after [[?]] CDR - avg]
• Eng tests have slipped a lot
• Elements on crit path (STA; SYS QUAL) have slipped
• Parallel paths
→ Expected design impact ~6 mo
[[right margin]] --> impact during design[[/right margin]]

TPS
LAS:
      SRM dev
      att cntl motor design
      jettison SRM motor dev.

[[left margin]]
Mar 2015
[Early 2017]FY
& redesign 
  time 
(~1 yr)
[[/left margin]]

test & verify schedule (GTA, STA, prop tests, FTA tests) - loss of SM in GTA
→ Expected impact during tests ~12 mo.
MOST SCHED GROWTH HIST OCCURS > CDR