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hurricane's intensity will remain constant. This inability to predict hurricane intensity has very unfortunate consequences. People are evacuated in the face of a hurricane that in the event proves very weak, and on the other hand, coastal residents can be surprised by storms that suddenly intensify before striking land. It must always be borne in mind that the destructive potential of hurricanes increases with the square of the wind speed. A maximum strength hurricane is roughly ten times as destructive as a minimal storm.

3. If question 1 can be answered, then the question of tropical cyclogenesis becomes one of forecasting when the correct conditions will occur. This is not now possible, because the tropical atmosphere is far too poorly observed to forecast when and where a particular meteorological circumstance will occur. If satellites detect a tropical disturbance, the pilotless aircraft could be deployed to the area to make the measurements necessary for predicting whether or not a hurricane will form. Had this been possible before the recent tragedy in Bangladesh, it is probable that there would have been more time to evacuate people from the coastal areas.   

4. The principle impediment to understanding hurricane motion is the almost total absence of quantitative measurements in the upper half of the hurricane circulation. This is perhaps the most important research topic that pilotless aircraft will contribute to. By flying over these storms and deploying numerous dropwindsondes, the data necessary for understanding hurricane motion will be available for the first time.

5. Once the factors that control hurricane motion are understood, it will be possible to say which measurements are in practice necessary to produce good forecasts of cyclone movement. Even before this understanding is reached, the vastly improved data resource will allow much better computer forecasts of hurricane motion. Tests done recently at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton confirm that routine hurricane track forecasts will be much improved by the input of data from pilotless aircraft. Better track forecasts will lead to better and more advanced warnings to coastal residents, and will save money by permitting the evacuation of a much smaller population than is now made necessary by the comparatively large uncertainties in such forecasts.