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THE CHANGING ATMOSPHERE-CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

a joint effort of the departments of Commerce, Defense, and Transportation, will provide for the first time the ability to see "inside" intense storms. This will let us detect the amount of rain falling, information that is essential for flash flood warnings, and to measure the wind patterns that are precursors of tornadoes. The Automated Surface Observing Station (ASOS), a joint effort of the Commerce and Transportation departments, will be located at airports throughout the country and will provide the continuous, 24-hour observations necessary for aircraft operations and for forecasting without the large investment required by current labor-intensive systems. The wind profiling system will provide the nearly continuous wind observations from the surface to jet aircraft altitudes that are important to predict the onset of severe weather and for efficient aircraft operations.

The data processing and communications systems contribute a vital part of the overall warning process. The amount of data produced by the detection systems, especially satellites and radars, would overwhelm forecasters unless they have the capability to convert the raw data into meaningful information needed to prepare and disseminate the warnings and forecast. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is being designed to collect these data, convert them to information, and communicate this information to the forecaster.

Weather forecasts for periods longer than a few hours require combining meteorological information with meteorological theory using numerical models of the atmosphere. In the United States, this vital step is performed on powerful computers at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The military establishments operate similar computer centers for their own specific needs. The final critical link required in the technological program is to replace the present computers at NMC with more modern and more powerful supercomputers. Forecast skill using these models is directly related to the power of the available computers. The United States has not been sufficiently aggressive in providing the necessary funds for these computers. As a result, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, which is using the most advanced American-made computer, produces more accurate forecasts than we do in the United States.

These improvements in measurement systems and computers will enable a quantum advance in our capability to observe and predict weather and climate. However, the full potential benefits of these complex systems will come only with the development and application of new concepts and understanding through extensive participation of the research community, including research laboratories and the university community in the overall national effort.

The meteorological community has identified and planned a program of severe storm research as the most important next step in improving forecasts and warnings of severe weather and flooding. This program is

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