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tionary and polar-orbiting satellites as well as an Earth-based network to provide spatial resolution and validation for the satellite measurements. New ground must be broken in measuring biological and chemical processes. An integral part of this observational program and of the study of processes will be the design and development of a sophisticated scientific information system responsive to the needs of research while fulfilling an archival function. Intimate interaction is necessary between a dynamic research program and data collection.

Modelling - Theory, as well as information gained from process studies and the observational system, will guide the development of conceptual and quantitative representation of those processes and their interactions. The models, in turn, will feed back to the design of observational systems and the elucidation of processes. Models are the principal tools for anticipating natural change and discrimination between it and anthropogenic perturbations. A hierarchy of models is envisioned that reaches across domains and links the relevant physical, chemical, and biological processes.

• Recovery of environmental records - "Proxy" indicators, or records, of prehistoric environmental changes - such as global ice volume, tree-ring widths, ice cores, isotope and chemical ratios in lake and ocean sediments, ice caps, and coral deposits. The stage is now set for a more intensive study of the dynamic content of these indicators within the context of a set of highly interactive processes that make up the total Earth system.

Priority is being given to key interactions that may lead to significant global changes on time scales of decades to centuries; that most affect the biosphere; that are most susceptible to human activity; and that will most likely lead to a useful predictive capability.

Prominent among the issues that must be addressed over the next two years are:

1. Specific program elements must thoughtfully planned and internationally coherent. Smooth integration of the IGBP initiative with related programs such as the World Climate Research Program, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and studies of the solid earth will be required. The sharp focus in the initial stages of IGBP will be broadened over the years to embrace the full scope of the term "global change". Early attention will be directed toward establishing a knowledge base adequate to anticipate and to deal rationally with the disturbing, recurring sequence of surprise, problem identification, and response, that is to say with stratospheric ozone depletion, greenhouse gas/climate change, acid deposition, etc. This will be succeeded by attention to the understanding required for prudent management of the Earth's planetary life support system to assure the general health and stability of human life on Planet Earth.

2. Appropriate institutional arrangements that recognize the autonomy of agencies and national efforts while insuring coherence globally needs to be explored. Space agencies have developed an effective array of mechanisms for international cooperation; multilateral governmental cooperation is traditionally implemented through the specialized agencies of the United Nations; the world scientific community is comfortable with cooperation through the International Council of Scientific Unions. An institution for exchange of program plans may have to be invented that will avoid the unde concentration of authority and bureaucratic paralysis. The design and operation of an international data system may focus attention on institutional issues.

3. Sooner rather than later, social and behavioral scientists should join the natural scientists in assessing the human response to — and responsibility for — global change. This has already begun in the initiative of the International Federation of Institutes of Advanced Study. Sharp focus will be required on (a) the characteristics, causes, and local and regional manifestations of global change; (b) the societal impact of global change; and (c) the policy options for dealing with global change.

4. Significant and sustained financial support will be required for the capital investment in technology and the continuing research effort that insures an adequate return on that capital investment. The longevity of the program and the need to match funding and firm program milestones will challenge the political processes that provide support. The political will required for that support rests on public understanding of objectives and awareness of accomplishments.

Can a productive partnership be forged between earth scientists and space scientists? Between the nongovernmental scientific community and the intergovernmental organizations? I believe it can. Twenty-five years ago last month, I participated in the Dryden-Blagonravov discussions in Rome to explore US/Soviet cooperation in the application of space science and technology to meteorology. That seminal meeting was the precursor of a literal explosion of knowledge concerning the global atmosphere. The problem of a total earth science program is far more complex. The means for addressing it, however, are at hand. This particular ISY conference is a good augury. It may be hazardous to label the Conference a seminal event — especially during the first plenary session — but I am willing to risk it.

The scientific challenge is clear. The response of the scientific community and those planning the International Space YEar bodes well for exciting prospects in science and technology with profound societal benefits. Involvement in international scientific matters over a quarter of a century left me unprepared for the powerful support this program is receiving. Thirty years ago, IGY lifted the eyes of a warweary people everywhere to the vision of a better and more livable world. ISY has an upward and outward vision of its own to share with people everywhere.