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398  HELICOPTER AIR SERVICE PROGRAM

     The potential scale of operation, and level of passenger acceptance, for the three original carriers can be thought of as being in the area of at least 925,000, even without the stimulus of new aircraft to CHA’s traffic. This would be well in line with a forecast of the 1.2 million passengers by 1965 which was prepared in 1960 by the Federal Aviation Agency.¹ In order to reach the forecast 1.2 million figure for 1965 from the potential level of 925,000 level in 1963 would require and increase of 29.7 per cent in two years, or an annual rate of increase of slightly less than 15 per cent. In view of the rapid increase in traffic which has occurred since the preparation of the FAA forecast in 1960, it appears that the likelihood is great that the three helicopter airlines could exceed the 1.2 million forecast if there had not been such drastic interruption in CHA's operations. As it is, actual traffic in 1963 must increase by 140 per cent if the FAA forecast is to be achieved, and this, of course, does not seem likely. It is apparent, therefore, that the Federal Aviation Agency in making its projection in 1960 had not anticipated the shift from Midway to O'Hare to be as severe as it has. The point here is that, aside from the unforeseen severity in the Midway-O'Hare shift, the level of customer acceptance of the helicopter as a vehicle and of helicopter operations as a public service have proceeded along anticipated lines of projection.

     A fourth helicopter carrier, San Francisco Oakland Helicopter (SFOH), has now been added to the certificated industry. In the Fiscal Year 1962 it carried a total of 118,856 passengers, an increase of 76.8 per cent from the twelve-month period of initial operations, with a projection of 173,478 passengers indicated for Calendar Year 1963.² In its brief history SFOH has steadily increased its penetration of the potential represented in the Bay area by enplaning and deplaning passengers on fixing aircraft. In 1962 SFOH recorded a volume of 1,378,403 revenue passenger miles.
     Traffic growth in terms of passenger miles and in revenue ton miles is shown in the following tables. Patterns of growth are similar to those shown in terms of passengers for the certificated carriers.

Table III-2
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
Scheduled Services(In Thousands)
[[5 columned table]]
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Year| Total| CHA| LAA| NYA|
|1953| 26|-|-| 26|
|1954| 183|-| 3| 180|
|1955| 628|-| 152| 476|
|1956| 1,585| 14| 771| 800|
|1957| 3,275| 895| 1,124| 1,256|
|1958| 4,885| 1,991| 1,168| 1,726|
|1959| 7,477| 3,667| 1,476| 2,334|
|1960| 9,475| 5,202| 1,355| 2,918|
|1961| 8,604| 4,224| 1,507| 2,873|
|1962| 8,192| 1,703| 2,832| 3,657|
|1961*| 12,230| 1,183| 5,942| 5,105|

* 12 months ended September 30.

Source: Air Carrier Traffic Statistics, CAB.

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¹ Project Hummingbird, Economics Research, Office of Plans, Federal Aviation Agency, November, 1960.
² Initial Decision, CAB, Docket 12029.

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