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HELICOPTER AIR SERVICE PROGRAM 431

Future Need for Helicopters in Airport Transportation

The future of the helicopter in its role providing expedited airport transportation as part of our nation's air transportation system is dependent upon demand arising in two areas. First, demand for airport transportation is dependent upon the demand for air service intercity and international transportation. Given a level of demand for intercity or international air transportation, the demand for air transportation on the intracity portion, or airport to business/residential area segment, is the dependent upon how the cost and convenience of travel by air compares with that by surface modes. In evaluating the future demand for helicopter services attention will be directed first to the intercity or international travel component of that demand.

The demand for intercity passenger travel is related to the nation's output of goods and services and to the personal income which is generated by such economic activity. Business travel can be associated more closely with the nation's Gross National Product while personal travel is thought to be associated more closely with personal income and personal consumption expenditures. Relationships between these various measures will vary over time but all of the projections indicate a 40 per cent growth of economic activity by the end of the 1960's and over 70 per cent by 1975, as compared with 1960.

Table III-29

PROJECTION OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND COMPONENTS
(Billions of Dollars)

[[6 columned table]]
|  |1960|1970|% Over 1960|1975|% Over 1960|
|Gross National Product|504|737|46.2%|892|77.0%|
|Disposable Personal Income|352|499|41.8%|604|71.6%|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures|329|462|40.4%|559|70.0%|

Source: U.S. Economics Corporation

From 1950 to 1960 total intercity passenger miles increased from 466 billion to 751 billion or an increase of 61 per cent and by 1962 demand has increased by another 5 per cent. The bulk of the traffic is accounted for by auto as the common carrier share of the market has declined from 13.3 per cent in 1950 to 9.4 per cent by 1962. Air travel has accounted for what little growth has been shown in common carrier traffic. Its share of total intercity travel has increased, 1950 to 1960, from 1.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent and in common carrier travel from 12.9 per cent to 47.0 per cent. (Table III-30.)

Passenger miles per dollar of Gross National Product (GNP) increased substantially in the 1960's but has shown a decrease since that time. Within 1963 there is evidence of a reversal of the recent downward trend and we believe that the 1962 relationship provides a basis for projection of demand into the future. (Table III-31.)

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