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November 5, 1961

The Sunday Times

I shall begin by asking the reader to forget, for the moment, the details of recent history and the political probabilities of the near future. I shall ask him, also, to forget his likes and dislikes, his preferences and aversions, and moral convictions as to what is good or bad. I wish to consider here, in a purely scientific and impartial manner, what conditions will have to be fulfilled if men are to continue to exist for a long time. 

So far as physical conditions are concerned, there seems to be no good reason why life, including human life, should not continue for many millions of years. The danger comes, not from man's physical or biological environment, but from himself. He has survived, hitherto through ignorance. Can he continue to survive now that the useful degree of ignorance is lost?

There is one form of somewhat temporary survival which is not wholly improbable. It may be that a nuclear war in the near future will leave some survivors, but none of the apparatus of civilisation. The survivors may for a long time, be almost entirely occupied in getting food. They may be totally destitute of social institutions and completely unable to transmit knowledge or technique to coming generations.

In such conditions, men might repeat the history of the last hundred thousand years, and, having arrived at last at our present degree of wisdom, might once again precipitate their own downfall by a folly equal to our own. This is one possible form of human survival, but it is not one that affords much comfort. 

Assuming that men remain capable of scientific technique, what ways are possible by which they might escape from total destruction? We are now asking a narrower question than, "Can man survive?" We are now asking "Can scientific man survive?" I am not asking merely whether he can survive for the next ten years, or even the next hundred years. He might, by means of expedients and by the help of luck, survive through periods of great danger. But good luck cannot be expected to last for ever, and the dangers which are allowed to persist will sooner or later bring retribution.

For such reasons, I am afraid it must be taken as practically certain that scientific man will not long survive if present international anarchy persists. So long as armed forces under the command of single nations, of groups of nations, not strong enough to have unquestioned control over the whole world—so long, it is almost certain that sooner or later there will be war, and, so long as scientific technique persists, war will grow more and more deadly. 

The 'Doomsday Machine'

There are already possibilities from which even advocates of H-bombs shrink. The "Doomsday Machine" which could exterminate us all, could already be constructed. For aught we know, it has already been constructed.

The cheapest form so far proposed is the cobalt bomb. This is exactly like the present H-bomb, except that the outer integument consists of cobalt and not of uranium. This would produce by its explosion a radio-active form of cobalt which would decay slowly. If enough cobalt bombs were exploded, the whole population of the globe would perish within a few years. 

The cobalt bomb is only one method of extermination. Present skills could construct many more, and present governments would be not unlikely to use some of them.

For such reasons, it seems indubitable that scientific man cannot long survive unless all the major weapons of war, and all the means of mass destruction, are in the hands of a single Authority, which, in consequence of its monopoly, would have irresistible power and, if challenged to war, could wipe out any rebellion within a few days without much damage except to the rebels. This, it seems


[[image - photograph]]
CAN [[MAN]]
SURV[[IVE]]
By BERTRA [[M RUSSELL]]

The eminent philosopher (and controversial leader of the civil disobedience campaign designed to persuade Britain to renounce atomic weapons for herself) lifts the nuclear argument from the realms

1: REALITIES OF W[[AR]]