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THE CHANGING ATMOSPHERE-CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

It is important that scientists and policy makers work together in this way to develop sound policies based on the best possible scientific information, and to avoid the dangers of overreacting to, as well as ignoring, issues associated with weather and climate. Policies must take into account the present uncertainties associated with scientific understanding of weather and climate, as well as deal with the wide range of possible scenarios.

This discussion has so far emphasized the hazards associated with weather and climate. The ability to forecast severe weather and to provide scientifically based estimates of future climate change can certainly be used to lessen the deleterious impacts of the atmosphere. Moreover, improvements in understanding and predictive ability can also be used in a positive way to create economic advantages. For example, even small improvements in wind forecasts will produce enormous savings in aircraft fuel, thus increasing the efficiency of the national air transportation industry and defense aviation. Better rainfall forecasts can increase efficiency in applying pesticides and fertilizers, and in irrigation practices. Weekly and monthly outlooks for heat waves, droughts, and prolonged cold periods can help to make regional distributions of energy and water more efficient. Reliable estimates of changes in sea level and regional precipitation and temperature can be used to guide the long-range development of agricultural, hydrological, and urban plans, and strengthen the economy and security of the nation as a whole. These steps can promote conservation of natural resources and increased efficiency of the entire United States economy.

The rest of this document discusses the opportunities in weather and climate operations and research that will benefit the people of every part of the United States. These programs will help protect life and property from weather phenomena, enhance our national security, make the United States more competitive in the global economy, and, with the cooperation of other nations, allow for the development of effective policies to cope with large changes in climate expected over the next few decades.

For convenience, we classify the required research and operational programs as related closely either to "weather," which includes atmospheric events with lifetimes of minutes to a few weeks, or to "climate," which includes events lasting months to decades and beyond. It is important to recognize that weather and climate processes are closely related: Therefore, improved understanding and prediction of weather will also improve our understanding and ability to predict climate, and vice versa.