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The Changing Atmosphere - Challenges and Opportunities

2.1 Forecasts and Warnings of Severe Weather

The United States experiences more severe local storms and flooding than any other nation in the world. Eighty-five percent of the presidentially declared disasters result from severe weather events - the hurricanes that batter the Gulf and East coasts each year; the 1,000 tornadoes annually, striking most frequently in the Midwest and southern states; the flash floods and river floods that occur in all states but especially in the Appalachians, New England, and the mountainous West; and the blizzards that occasionally paralyze many northern cities and states.

Because of their small size and short duration, most severe weather phenomena occur between our observing stations and thus escape systematic measurement and early detection. Research has demonstrated that these small-scale, rapidly developing weather events can be detected and forecast with much greater accuracy, using advanced observational and computational technologies, and in advanced models of severe weather phenomena. 

Building on these advances, the National Weather Service can now improve severe weather and flood warnings by introducing new observation and information systems across the United States. By doing so, we will, for the first time, provide weather observations on a sufficiently refined space and time scale to detect these events at an early stage, and, even more importantly, we will be able to predict their development and motion in a timely manner.

The technology for this enhancement of the nation's weather warning system is already in various stages of development and implementation. A determined effort, with adequate funding, is now required to bring the program into full operation.

The technological systems fall into two categories:
   
(1) Detection and Observing Systems - Geostationary and polar orbiting meteorological satellites; advanced Doppler radars, automated surface observing stations, and automatic temperature, moisture, and wind profiling systems.

(2) Data Processing and Communication Systems - Interactive computer, display, and storage systems for all weather stations and large central supercomputing systems located at operational and research centers.

These enhanced detection and observing systems will revolutionize our ability to locate and determine the intensity of all severe storms. The next generation of geostationary satellites (GOES) will observe storms and give a detailed topside view of the weather systems throughout the United States and adjacent waters. The new advanced radar (NEXRAD),

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