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THE CHANGING ATMOSPHERE-CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

called STORM (STormscale Operational and Research Meteorology). It will engage the research community in the development and use of the new observational and modeling capabilities. To ensure the transfer of research results into improved operations, the program includes experimental forecast centers where operational forecasters and researchers work side by side. STORM also includes plans for specialized field programs, involving Doppler radars and research aircraft, that will take place during the storm seasons in key parts of the United States. The first STORM field experiment is planned for the central United States during the severe storm period in the spring of 1992.

While programs for most of the operational systems hardware are being funded and must be completed, an additional 10-15% for the high payoff STORM research program should be added to the national effort. If prolonged further, this funding shortfall could lead to a serious loss of potential benefits to the nation's weather warning, forecast, and training capability. The delay will also result in a missed opportunity to collaborate and capitalize on the research and forecast capabilities of other nations such as Japan and the European countries.

2.2 Serving the Economy—Medium—and Long-Range Forecasting

Weather forecasts for periods of a week, and probabilistic outlooks on temperature and precipitation anomalies for a month in advance, can increase the productivity and efficiency of industry and commerce. Agriculture is especially sensitive to weather, experiencing losses of more than $20 billion each year. As requirements for limited water resources increase, the use of weather and climate information to improve water management will be vital to regional economies. Efficiencies in the use and distribution of energy are also weather sensitive. An increase of only a few percentage points in efficiency of energy operations would result in a several-billion-dollar improvement in our overall economy.

Remarkable scientific advances have been made in weather forecasting over the past ten years. Because of the worldwide Global Atmospheric Research Program initiative, useful six-day forecasts are now produced routinely. With a concerted national effort over the next decade, the useful range of day-to-day forecasts can be extended to ten days, and significant enhancements of the accuracy of monthly outlooks can be achieved. Seasonal forecasting should also improve through greater understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as El Niño.

To realize the potential of today's science and technology requires continuation of the meteorological polar orbiting satellites, a more aggressive effort in furthering scientific understanding of the atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system, and the availability of the most powerful supercomputers at major atmospheric research centers and at the National Meteorological Center.

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